Efektywny akcelerizm - ruch filozoficzny XXI wieku opowiadający się za wyraźnym stanowiskiem protechnologicznym.

e/acc

[#zajebanezreddita](/tag/zajebanezreddita)﻿ [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/18vawje/comment/kfpntso/?utm\_source=reddit&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/18vawje/comment/kfpntso/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Dobry komentarz ze zbiorem prognoz co do AGI, zebrane w jednym miejscu. Ciekawe więc przeklejam tutajj.

**KILKA PROGNOZ OD BARDZIEJ RENOMANYCH OSÓB:**
ZASTRZEŻENIE:

*   Prognoza ze znakiem zapytania oznacza, że dana osoba nie użyła terminów „AGI” ani „inteligencja na poziomie ludzkim”, ale to, co opisała lub zasugerowała, brzmiało dla mnie jak AGI; więc traktuj te przewidywania z przymrużeniem oka.
*   Nazwa napisana pogrubionymi literami oznacza, że jest to nowe przewidywanie, zrobione lub powtórzone w 2023 roku.

*   **Paul Yacoubian** (Founder of copy.ai)

\----> AGI: ~2023 [https://twitter.com/PaulYacoubian/status/1617595451766603790](https://twitter.com/PaulYacoubian/status/1617595451766603790)

*   Rob Bensinger (MIRI Berkeley)

\----> AGI: ~2023-42 [https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1541649444080234496](https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1541649444080234496)

*   **David Shapiro** (Automation engineer; Hobby AGI researcher)

\----> AGI: ~2024 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXQ6OKSvzfc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXQ6OKSvzfc)

*   **Daniel Faggella** (Founder 'Emerj AI Research')

\----> AGI: ~2024 [https://twitter.com/danfaggella/status/1735472480444149809](https://twitter.com/danfaggella/status/1735472480444149809)

*   **kenshin9000** (AI Safety Researcher)

\----> AGI: ~2025 [https://twitter.com/kenshin9000\_/status/1734237200160571508?s=20](https://twitter.com/kenshin9000_/status/1734237200160571508?s=20)

*   **Dr Alan D. Thompson** (AI expert; lifearchitect.ai)

\----> AGI: ~Q1/2026 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y46EoCXQ-Sw#t=50m07s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y46EoCXQ-Sw#t=50m07s)

*   **Siméon Campos** (Founder CEffisciences & SaferAI)

\----> AGI: ~2025-27 [https://twitter.com/Simeon\_Cps/status/1652474298542563328](https://twitter.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1652474298542563328)

*   **Joscha Bach** (Principal AI Engineer at Intel Labs Cognitive Computing group)

\----> AGI: ~2025? [https://twitter.com/Plinz/status/1630767724090773505](https://twitter.com/Plinz/status/1630767724090773505)

*   **Richard Ngo** (OpenAI)

\----> AGI: ~Q4/2025? [https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568775018975232?t=\_fRNaW6mAnnvhMExBb9dpw&s=19](https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568775018975232?t=_fRNaW6mAnnvhMExBb9dpw&s=19)

*   **Dario Amodei** (Anthropic CEO)

\----> AGI: ~2025-26 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlkk3glap\_U#t=27m51s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlkk3glap_U#t=27m51s)

*   **Thomas Tomiczek** (CTO & Co-Founder artelligence.consulting)

\----> AGI: ~2025-26 [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/17g2hs5/i\_now\_understand\_what\_the\_meaning\_of\_ignorance\_is/k6dqrkc/](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/17g2hs5/i_now_understand_what_the_meaning_of_ignorance_is/k6dqrkc/)

*   **Nathan Helm-Burger** (AI alignment researcher; lesswrong-author)

\----> AGI: ~2025-30? [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BoA3agdkAzL6HQtQP/?commentId=eCaRMgBds2jNvcnPY](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BoA3agdkAzL6HQtQP/?commentId=eCaRMgBds2jNvcnPY)

*   **Dr. Waku** (YouTuber; PhD in computer security)

\----> AGI: ~Q4/2025 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEgDGaOIvtw#t=13m15s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEgDGaOIvtw#t=13m15s)

*   **VERSES Technologies**

\----> AGI: ~Jan.2026 [https://www.verses.ai/research-development-roadmap](https://www.verses.ai/research-development-roadmap)

*   **Daniel Kokotajlo** (OpenAI Futures/Governance team)

\----> AGI: ~2026 [https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines)

*   Ben Goertzel (SingularityNET, OpenCog)

\----> AGI: ~2026-27 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsFWDFz5tE0#t=08m50s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsFWDFz5tE0#t=08m50s)

*   **Mustafa Suleyman** (DeepMind Co-founder/Inflection CEO)

\----> AGI: ~2026-28? [https://twitter.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1734685184593653905](https://twitter.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1734685184593653905)

*   Jacob Cannell (Vast.ai, lesswrong-author)

\----> AGI: ~2026-32 [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nMpdmt8LrzxQnkGp/ai-timelines-via-cumulative-optimization-power-less-long](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nMpdmt8LrzxQnkGp/ai-timelines-via-cumulative-optimization-power-less-long)

*   **Elon Musk** (Tesla, SpaceX)

\----> AGI: <2027 [https://twitter.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1730063434761318642](https://twitter.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1730063434761318642)

*   **Roon** (OpenAI; AI researcher)

\----> AGI: ~2027 [https://twitter.com/tszzl/status/1626677300132708352](https://twitter.com/tszzl/status/1626677300132708352)

*   Jim Keller (Tenstorrent)

\----> AGI: ~2027-32? [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ll5c50MrPs#t=31m25s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ll5c50MrPs#t=31m25s)

*   **Conjecture.AI**

\----> AGI: ~2027-35 [https://www.conjecture.dev/timelines-and-pdoom/](https://www.conjecture.dev/timelines-and-pdoom/)

*   **Andrea Miotti** (Conjecture.ai ; lesswrong-author)

\----> AGI: <2028 [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PE22QJSww8mpwh7bt/agi-in-sight-our-look-at-the-game-board](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PE22QJSww8mpwh7bt/agi-in-sight-our-look-at-the-game-board)

*   **Gabriel Alfour** (Conjecture.ai ; lesswrong-author)

\----> AGI: <2028 [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PE22QJSww8mpwh7bt/agi-in-sight-our-look-at-the-game-board](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PE22QJSww8mpwh7bt/agi-in-sight-our-look-at-the-game-board)

*   **Curtis Huebner** (EleutherAI; Head of Alignment)

\----> AGI: ~2028 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s3XctQOgew#t=29m01s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s3XctQOgew#t=29m01s)

*   Geordie Rose (D-Wave, Sanctuary AI)

\----> AGI: ~2028 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JnTKkoPd1U#t=23m27s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JnTKkoPd1U#t=23m27s)

*   **Shane Legg** (DeepMind co-founder and chief scientist)

\----> AGI: ~2028 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMUdrUP-QCs#t=3m45s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMUdrUP-QCs#t=3m45s)

*   **Qiu Xipeng** (prof. from Fudan's School of CS; MOSS-LLM)

\----> AGI: ~2028-33 [https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202303/02/WS640068e5a31057c47ebb1cba\_1.html](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202303/02/WS640068e5a31057c47ebb1cba_1.html)

*   Cathie Wood (ARKInvest)

\----> AGI: ~2028-34 [https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1528179451070230530](https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1528179451070230530)

*   **Vladimir Nesov** (lesswrong-author)

\----> AGI: ~2028-37 [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HguqQSY8mR7NxGopc/?commentId=ceyfbskaPpahQTmfj](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HguqQSY8mR7NxGopc/?commentId=ceyfbskaPpahQTmfj)

*   Aran Komatsuzaki (EleutherAI; was research intern at Google)

\----> AGI: ~2028-38? [https://twitter.com/arankomatsuzaki/status/1537544920428294145](https://twitter.com/arankomatsuzaki/status/1537544920428294145)

*   **Richard Sutton** (Deepmind Alberta)

\----> AGI: ~2028-43 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgHFMolXs3U#t=02m20s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgHFMolXs3U#t=02m20s)

*   **Geoffrey Hinton** (Turing Award Winner; ex-Google)

\----> AGI: ~2028-43 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpoRO378qRY#t=25m51s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpoRO378qRY#t=25m51s)

*   **Yoshua Bengio** (Turing Award Winner; Professor at Université de Montréal)

\----> AGI: ~2028-43 [https://yoshuabengio.org/2023/08/12/personal-and-psychological-dimensions-of-ai-researchers-confronting-ai-catastrophic-risks/](https://yoshuabengio.org/2023/08/12/personal-and-psychological-dimensions-of-ai-researchers-confronting-ai-catastrophic-risks/)

*   **Ryan Kupyn** (Data Scientist & Forecasting Researcher @ Amazon AWS)

\----> AGI: ~2028-65 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHnwk2sATdI#t=47m47s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHnwk2sATdI#t=47m47s)

*   Ray Kurzweil (Google)

\----> AGI: <2029 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iFSz1orGUg#t=02m47s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iFSz1orGUg#t=02m47s)

*   **Jensen Huang** (Nvidia CEO)

\----> AGI: <2029 [https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-agi-ai-five-years-2023-11?r=US&IR=T](https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-agi-ai-five-years-2023-11?r=US&IR=T)

*   **Mo Gawdat** (former Chief Business Officer at Google \[X\])

\----> AGI: ~2029 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H7PwTgGO5E#t=09m38s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H7PwTgGO5E#t=09m38s)

*   Brent Oster (Orbai)

\----> AGI: ~2029 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP67hHT88VQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP67hHT88VQ)

*   **Hunter Jay (CEO, Ripe Robotics)**

\----> AGI: ~2029 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1VmlCqAziQ#t=14m05s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1VmlCqAziQ#t=14m05s)

*   **Bindu Reddy** (CEO of Abacus.AI)

\----> AGI: ~2029-34 [https://nitter.net/bindureddy/status/1737194651730522357#m](https://nitter.net/bindureddy/status/1737194651730522357#m)

*   Vernor Vinge (Mathematician, computer scientist, sci-fi-author)

\----> AGI: <2030 [https://historyofinformation.com/detail.php?entryid=2510](https://historyofinformation.com/detail.php?entryid=2510)

*   **Peter Welinder** (OpenAI VP of Product & Partnerships)

\----> AGI: <2030 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvxtIIqJRUQ#t=34m10s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvxtIIqJRUQ#t=34m10s)

*   John Carmack (Keen Technologies)

\----> AGI: ~2030 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I845O57ZSy4#t=237m50s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I845O57ZSy4#t=237m50s)

*   Connor Leahy (EleutherAI, Conjecture)

\----> AGI: ~2030 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz4G9zrlAGs#t=34m50s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz4G9zrlAGs#t=34m50s)

*   Matthew Griffin (Futurist, 311 Institute)

\----> AGI: ~2030 [https://www.311institute.com/codexes/future-of-exponential-technology/#page=252](https://www.311institute.com/codexes/future-of-exponential-technology/#page=252)

*   Louis Rosenberg (Unanimous AI)

\----> AGI: ~2030 [https://futurism.com/separating-science-fact-science-hype-how-far-off-singularity](https://futurism.com/separating-science-fact-science-hype-how-far-off-singularity)

*   Ash Jafari (Ex-Nvidia-Analyst, Futurist)

\----> AGI: ~2030 [https://aifuture.substack.com/p/how-far-are-we-from-artificial-general](https://aifuture.substack.com/p/how-far-are-we-from-artificial-general)

*   Tony Czarnecki (Managing Partner of Sustensis)

\----> AGI: ~2030 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wQ\_XLwF6k4#t=22m55s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wQ_XLwF6k4#t=22m55s)

*   Ross Nordby (AI researcher; Lesswrong-author)

\----> AGI: ~2030 [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-think-strong-general-ai-is-coming-soon](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-think-strong-general-ai-is-coming-soon)

*   **Samuel Hammond** (Senior Economist at the Foundation for American Innovation)

\----> AGI: <2030? [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxrWNR3sBN0#t=03m00s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxrWNR3sBN0#t=03m00s)

*   Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI)

\----> AGI: ~2030-35? [https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/kxgg1b/openais\_chief\_scientist\_ilya\_sutskever\_comments/](https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/kxgg1b/openais_chief_scientist_ilya_sutskever_comments/)

*   Hans Moravec (Carnegie Mellon University)

\----> AGI: ~2030-40 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaOQi2P6IVk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaOQi2P6IVk)

*   Jürgen Schmidhuber (NNAISENSE)

\----> AGI: ~2030-47? [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGftUCTqaGg#t=42m48s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGftUCTqaGg#t=42m48s)

*   Eric Schmidt (Ex-Google Chairman)

\----> AGI: ~2031-41 [https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/09/eric-schmidt-artificial-intelligence-misinformation/620218/](https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/09/eric-schmidt-artificial-intelligence-misinformation/620218/)

*   Sam Altman (OpenAI)

\----> AGI: <2032? [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJXYYnX9HqA#t=29m35s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJXYYnX9HqA#t=29m35s)

*   Charles Simon (CEO of Future AI)

\----> AGI: <2032 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JpwviPYZgk#t=02m15s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JpwviPYZgk#t=02m15s)

*   Anders Sandberg (Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford)

\----> AGI: ~2032? [https://twitter.com/anderssandberg/status/1512377883657973763](https://twitter.com/anderssandberg/status/1512377883657973763)

*   Matt Welsh (Ex-google engineering director)

\----> AGI: ~2032? [https://levelup.gitconnected.com/the-end-of-programming-6e3f7ff0d8b4](https://levelup.gitconnected.com/the-end-of-programming-6e3f7ff0d8b4)

*   Yann LeCun (Meta)

\----> AGI: ~2032-37 [https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/06/24/1054817/yann-lecun-bold-new-vision-future-ai-deep-learning-meta/](https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/06/24/1054817/yann-lecun-bold-new-vision-future-ai-deep-learning-meta/)

*   Chamath Palihapitiya (CEO of Social Capital)

\----> AGI: ~2032-37 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFQUDCgMjRc#t=53m40s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFQUDCgMjRc#t=53m40s)

*   Demis Hassabis (DeepMind)

\----> AGI: ~2032-42 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdeY-MrXD74#t=07m11s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdeY-MrXD74#t=07m11s)

*   Robert Miles (Youtube channel about AI Safety)

\----> AGI: ~2032-42 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyZye1GZtfk#t=135m10s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyZye1GZtfk#t=135m10s)

*   **Greg Brockman** (OpenAI-Co-Founder)

\----> AGI: <2033 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIy4MziFtcw#t=21m50s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIy4MziFtcw#t=21m50s)

*   **Masayoshi Son** (SoftBank CEO)

\----> AGI: <2033 [https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/04/tech/japan-softbank-ai-hnk-intl/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/04/tech/japan-softbank-ai-hnk-intl/index.html)

*   **Bill Gates** (Microsoft)

\----> AGI: ~2033-2123 [https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun](https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun)

*   OpenAi

\----> AGI: <2035 [https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/)

*   Jie Tang (Prof. at Tsinghua University, Wu-Dao 2 Leader)

\----> AGI: ~2035 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wQ\_XLwF6k4#t=20m05s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wQ_XLwF6k4#t=20m05s)

*   **Eric Jang** (VP of AI at 1X Technologies)

\----> AGI: ~2038 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBuaYsyEu7A#t=31m37s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBuaYsyEu7A#t=31m37s)

*   **Jack Kendall** (CTO, Rain.AI, maker of neural net chips)

\----> AGI: ~2038-43 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swknkjTulSs#t=53m55s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swknkjTulSs#t=53m55s)

*   Max Roser (Programme Director, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford)

\----> AGI: ~2040 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swknkjTulSs#t=53m55s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swknkjTulSs#t=53m55s)

*   Jeff Hawkins (Numenta)

\----> AGI: ~2040-50

*   **METACULUS**:

\----> weak AGI: 2026 (December 31, 2023) [https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/)
\----> AGI: 2031 (December 31, 2023) [https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)

#ai ﻿[#technologia](/tag/technologia)﻿ #nauka ﻿[#ciekawostki](/tag/ciekawostki)﻿ #agi ﻿[#sztucznainteligencja](/tag/sztucznainteligencja)﻿ #eacc

#zajebanezreddita﻿ https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/18vawje/comment/kfpntso/?utm_source=reddit&amp;utm_medium=web2x&amp;context=3
Dobry komentarz ze zbiorem prognoz co do AGI, zebrane w jednym miejscu. Ciekawe więc przeklejam tutajj.
KILKA PROGNOZ OD BARDZIEJ RENOMANYCH OSÓB:
ZASTRZEŻENIE:


Prognoza ze znakiem zapytania oznacza, że dana osoba nie użyła terminów „AGI” ani „inteligencja na poziomie ludzkim”, ale to, co opisała lub zasugerowała, brzmiało dla mnie jak AGI; więc traktuj te przewidywania z przymrużeniem oka.


Nazwa napisana pogrubionymi literami oznacza, że jest to nowe przewidywanie, zrobione lub powtórzone w 2023 roku.


Paul Yacoubian (Founder of copy.ai)


----&gt; AGI: ~2023 https://twitter.com/PaulYacoubian/status/1617595451766603790

Rob Bensinger (MIRI Berkeley)

----&gt; AGI: ~2023-42 https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1541649444080234496

David Shapiro (Automation engineer; Hobby AGI researcher)

----&gt; AGI: ~2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXQ6OKSvzfc

Daniel Faggella (Founder 'Emerj AI Research')

----&gt; AGI: ~2024 https://twitter.com/danfaggella/status/1735472480444149809

kenshin9000 (AI Safety Researcher)

----&gt; AGI: ~2025 https://twitter.com/kenshin9000_/status/1734237200160571508?s=20

Dr Alan D. Thompson (AI expert; lifearchitect.ai)

----&gt; AGI: ~Q1/2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y46EoCXQ-Sw#t=50m07s

Siméon Campos (Founder CEffisciences &amp; SaferAI)

----&gt; AGI: ~2025-27 https://twitter.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1652474298542563328

Joscha Bach (Principal AI Engineer at Intel Labs Cognitive Computing group)

----&gt; AGI: ~2025? https://twitter.com/Plinz/status/1630767724090773505

Richard Ngo (OpenAI)

----&gt; AGI: ~Q4/2025? https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568775018975232?t=_fRNaW6mAnnvhMExBb9dpw&amp;s=19

Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO)

----&gt; AGI: ~2025-26 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlkk3glap_U#t=27m51s

Thomas Tomiczek (CTO &amp; Co-Founder artelligence.consulting)

----&gt; AGI: ~2025-26 https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/17g2hs5/i_now_understand_what_the_meaning_of_ignorance_is/k6dqrkc/

Nathan Helm-Burger (AI alignment researcher; lesswrong-author)

----&gt; AGI: ~2025-30? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BoA3agdkAzL6HQtQP/?commentId=eCaRMgBds2jNvcnPY

Dr. Waku (YouTuber; PhD in computer security)

----&gt; AGI: ~Q4/2025 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEgDGaOIvtw#t=13m15s

VERSES Technologies

----&gt; AGI: ~Jan.2026 https://www.verses.ai/research-development-roadmap

Daniel Kokotajlo (OpenAI Futures/Governance team)

----&gt; AGI: ~2026 https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines

Ben Goertzel (SingularityNET, OpenCog)

----&gt; AGI: ~2026-27 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsFWDFz5tE0#t=08m50s

Mustafa Suleyman (DeepMind Co-founder/Inflection CEO)

----&gt; AGI: ~2026-28? https://twitter.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1734685184593653905

Jacob Cannell (Vast.ai, lesswrong-author)

----&gt; AGI: ~2026-32 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nMpdmt8LrzxQnkGp/ai-timelines-via-cumulative-optimization-power-less-long

Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2027 https://twitter.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1730063434761318642

Roon (OpenAI; AI researcher)

----&gt; AGI: ~2027 https://twitter.com/tszzl/status/1626677300132708352

Jim Keller (Tenstorrent)

----&gt; AGI: ~2027-32? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ll5c50MrPs#t=31m25s

Conjecture.AI

----&gt; AGI: ~2027-35 https://www.conjecture.dev/timelines-and-pdoom/

Andrea Miotti (Conjecture.ai ; lesswrong-author)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2028 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PE22QJSww8mpwh7bt/agi-in-sight-our-look-at-the-game-board

Gabriel Alfour (Conjecture.ai ; lesswrong-author)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2028 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PE22QJSww8mpwh7bt/agi-in-sight-our-look-at-the-game-board

Curtis Huebner (EleutherAI; Head of Alignment)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s3XctQOgew#t=29m01s

Geordie Rose (D-Wave, Sanctuary AI)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JnTKkoPd1U#t=23m27s

Shane Legg (DeepMind co-founder and chief scientist)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMUdrUP-QCs#t=3m45s

Qiu Xipeng (prof. from Fudan's School of CS; MOSS-LLM)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028-33 https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202303/02/WS640068e5a31057c47ebb1cba_1.html

Cathie Wood (ARKInvest)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028-34 https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1528179451070230530

Vladimir Nesov (lesswrong-author)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028-37 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HguqQSY8mR7NxGopc/?commentId=ceyfbskaPpahQTmfj

Aran Komatsuzaki (EleutherAI; was research intern at Google)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028-38? https://twitter.com/arankomatsuzaki/status/1537544920428294145

Richard Sutton (Deepmind Alberta)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028-43 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgHFMolXs3U#t=02m20s

Geoffrey Hinton (Turing Award Winner; ex-Google)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028-43 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpoRO378qRY#t=25m51s

Yoshua Bengio (Turing Award Winner; Professor at Université de Montréal)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028-43 https://yoshuabengio.org/2023/08/12/personal-and-psychological-dimensions-of-ai-researchers-confronting-ai-catastrophic-risks/

Ryan Kupyn (Data Scientist &amp; Forecasting Researcher @ Amazon AWS)

----&gt; AGI: ~2028-65 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHnwk2sATdI#t=47m47s

Ray Kurzweil (Google)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2029 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iFSz1orGUg#t=02m47s

Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2029 https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-agi-ai-five-years-2023-11?r=US&amp;IR=T

Mo Gawdat (former Chief Business Officer at Google [X])

----&gt; AGI: ~2029 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H7PwTgGO5E#t=09m38s

Brent Oster (Orbai)

----&gt; AGI: ~2029 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP67hHT88VQ

Hunter Jay (CEO, Ripe Robotics)

----&gt; AGI: ~2029 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1VmlCqAziQ#t=14m05s

Bindu Reddy (CEO of Abacus.AI)

----&gt; AGI: ~2029-34 https://nitter.net/bindureddy/status/1737194651730522357#m

Vernor Vinge (Mathematician, computer scientist, sci-fi-author)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2030 https://historyofinformation.com/detail.php?entryid=2510

Peter Welinder (OpenAI VP of Product &amp; Partnerships)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2030 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvxtIIqJRUQ#t=34m10s

John Carmack (Keen Technologies)

----&gt; AGI: ~2030 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I845O57ZSy4#t=237m50s

Connor Leahy (EleutherAI, Conjecture)

----&gt; AGI: ~2030 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz4G9zrlAGs#t=34m50s

Matthew Griffin (Futurist, 311 Institute)

----&gt; AGI: ~2030 https://www.311institute.com/codexes/future-of-exponential-technology/#page=252

Louis Rosenberg (Unanimous AI)

----&gt; AGI: ~2030 https://futurism.com/separating-science-fact-science-hype-how-far-off-singularity

Ash Jafari (Ex-Nvidia-Analyst, Futurist)

----&gt; AGI: ~2030 https://aifuture.substack.com/p/how-far-are-we-from-artificial-general

Tony Czarnecki (Managing Partner of Sustensis)

----&gt; AGI: ~2030 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wQ_XLwF6k4#t=22m55s

Ross Nordby (AI researcher; Lesswrong-author)

----&gt; AGI: ~2030 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-think-strong-general-ai-is-coming-soon

Samuel Hammond (Senior Economist at the Foundation for American Innovation)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2030? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxrWNR3sBN0#t=03m00s

Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI)

----&gt; AGI: ~2030-35? https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/kxgg1b/openais_chief_scientist_ilya_sutskever_comments/

Hans Moravec (Carnegie Mellon University)

----&gt; AGI: ~2030-40 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaOQi2P6IVk

Jürgen Schmidhuber (NNAISENSE)

----&gt; AGI: ~2030-47? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGftUCTqaGg#t=42m48s

Eric Schmidt (Ex-Google Chairman)

----&gt; AGI: ~2031-41 https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/09/eric-schmidt-artificial-intelligence-misinformation/620218/

Sam Altman (OpenAI)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2032? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJXYYnX9HqA#t=29m35s

Charles Simon (CEO of Future AI)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2032 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JpwviPYZgk#t=02m15s

Anders Sandberg (Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford)

----&gt; AGI: ~2032? https://twitter.com/anderssandberg/status/1512377883657973763

Matt Welsh (Ex-google engineering director)

----&gt; AGI: ~2032? https://levelup.gitconnected.com/the-end-of-programming-6e3f7ff0d8b4

Yann LeCun (Meta)

----&gt; AGI: ~2032-37 https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/06/24/1054817/yann-lecun-bold-new-vision-future-ai-deep-learning-meta/

Chamath Palihapitiya (CEO of Social Capital)

----&gt; AGI: ~2032-37 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFQUDCgMjRc#t=53m40s

Demis Hassabis (DeepMind)

----&gt; AGI: ~2032-42 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdeY-MrXD74#t=07m11s

Robert Miles (Youtube channel about AI Safety)

----&gt; AGI: ~2032-42 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyZye1GZtfk#t=135m10s

Greg Brockman (OpenAI-Co-Founder)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2033 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIy4MziFtcw#t=21m50s

Masayoshi Son (SoftBank CEO)

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2033 https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/04/tech/japan-softbank-ai-hnk-intl/index.html

Bill Gates (Microsoft)

----&gt; AGI: ~2033-2123 https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun

OpenAi

----&gt; AGI: &lt;2035 https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/

Jie Tang (Prof. at Tsinghua University, Wu-Dao 2 Leader)

----&gt; AGI: ~2035 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wQ_XLwF6k4#t=20m05s

Eric Jang (VP of AI at 1X Technologies)

----&gt; AGI: ~2038 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBuaYsyEu7A#t=31m37s

Jack Kendall (CTO, Rain.AI, maker of neural net chips)

----&gt; AGI: ~2038-43 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swknkjTulSs#t=53m55s

Max Roser (Programme Director, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford)

----&gt; AGI: ~2040 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swknkjTulSs#t=53m55s

Jeff Hawkins (Numenta)

----&gt; AGI: ~2040-50

METACULUS:

----&gt; weak AGI: 2026 (December 31, 2023) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/
----&gt; AGI: 2031 (December 31, 2023) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
ai ﻿#technologia﻿ #nauka ﻿#ciekawostki﻿ #agi ﻿#sztucznainteligencja﻿ #eacc

Zbiór przewidywań osób związanych z technologią AI co do czasu uzyskania AGI

Czas, jaki zdaniem ekspertów z dziedziny AI potrzebny będzie do osiągnięcia AGI, znacznie się skrócił.

﻿[#technologia](/tag/technologia)﻿ ﻿[#nauka](/tag/nauka)﻿ ﻿[#ciekawostki](/tag/ciekawostki)﻿ #ai ﻿[#sztucznainteligencja](/tag/sztucznainteligencja)﻿ #agi

Czas, jaki zdaniem ekspertów z dziedziny AI potrzebny będzie do osiągnięcia AGI, znacznie się skrócił.
﻿#technologia﻿ ﻿#nauka﻿ ﻿#ciekawostki﻿ #ai ﻿#sztucznainteligencja﻿ #agi

Eksperci AI korygują prognozy o czasie potrzebnym do uzyskania AGI [ENG]

Może jednak?

[https://nitter.net/pronounced\_kyle/status/1742588127628361809#m](https://nitter.net/pronounced_kyle/status/1742588127628361809#m)

﻿[#lk99](/tag/lk99)﻿ ﻿[#nadprzewodnik](/tag/nadprzewodnik)﻿ ﻿[#technologia](/tag/technologia)﻿ ﻿[#nauka](/tag/nauka)﻿ ﻿[#ciekawostki](/tag/ciekawostki)﻿ #hts

Może jednak?
https://nitter.net/pronounced_kyle/status/1742588127628361809#m
﻿#lk99﻿ ﻿#nadprzewodnik﻿ ﻿#technologia﻿ ﻿#nauka﻿ ﻿#ciekawostki﻿ #hts