Zbiór przewidywań osób związanych z technologią AI co do czasu uzyskania AGI
hejto.pl
#zajebanezreddita https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/18vawje/comment/kfpntso/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Dobry komentarz ze zbiorem prognoz co do AGI, zebrane w jednym miejscu. Ciekawe więc przeklejam tutajj.
KILKA PROGNOZ OD BARDZIEJ RENOMANYCH OSÓB:
ZASTRZEŻENIE:
-
Prognoza ze znakiem zapytania oznacza, że dana osoba nie użyła terminów „AGI” ani „inteligencja na poziomie ludzkim”, ale to, co opisała lub zasugerowała, brzmiało dla mnie jak AGI; więc traktuj te przewidywania z przymrużeniem oka.
-
Nazwa napisana pogrubionymi literami oznacza, że jest to nowe przewidywanie, zrobione lub powtórzone w 2023 roku.
- Paul Yacoubian (Founder of copy.ai)
----> AGI: ~2023 https://twitter.com/PaulYacoubian/status/1617595451766603790
- Rob Bensinger (MIRI Berkeley)
----> AGI: ~2023-42 https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1541649444080234496
- David Shapiro (Automation engineer; Hobby AGI researcher)
----> AGI: ~2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXQ6OKSvzfc
- Daniel Faggella (Founder 'Emerj AI Research')
----> AGI: ~2024 https://twitter.com/danfaggella/status/1735472480444149809
- kenshin9000 (AI Safety Researcher)
----> AGI: ~2025 https://twitter.com/kenshin9000_/status/1734237200160571508?s=20
- Dr Alan D. Thompson (AI expert; lifearchitect.ai)
----> AGI: ~Q1/2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y46EoCXQ-Sw#t=50m07s
- Siméon Campos (Founder CEffisciences & SaferAI)
----> AGI: ~2025-27 https://twitter.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1652474298542563328
- Joscha Bach (Principal AI Engineer at Intel Labs Cognitive Computing group)
----> AGI: ~2025? https://twitter.com/Plinz/status/1630767724090773505
- Richard Ngo (OpenAI)
----> AGI: ~Q4/2025? https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568775018975232?t=_fRNaW6mAnnvhMExBb9dpw&s=19
- Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO)
----> AGI: ~2025-26 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlkk3glap_U#t=27m51s
- Thomas Tomiczek (CTO & Co-Founder artelligence.consulting)
----> AGI: ~2025-26 https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/17g2hs5/i_now_understand_what_the_meaning_of_ignorance_is/k6dqrkc/
- Nathan Helm-Burger (AI alignment researcher; lesswrong-author)
----> AGI: ~2025-30? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BoA3agdkAzL6HQtQP/?commentId=eCaRMgBds2jNvcnPY
- Dr. Waku (YouTuber; PhD in computer security)
----> AGI: ~Q4/2025 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEgDGaOIvtw#t=13m15s
- VERSES Technologies
----> AGI: ~Jan.2026 https://www.verses.ai/research-development-roadmap
- Daniel Kokotajlo (OpenAI Futures/Governance team)
----> AGI: ~2026 https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines
- Ben Goertzel (SingularityNET, OpenCog)
----> AGI: ~2026-27 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsFWDFz5tE0#t=08m50s
- Mustafa Suleyman (DeepMind Co-founder/Inflection CEO)
----> AGI: ~2026-28? https://twitter.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1734685184593653905
- Jacob Cannell (Vast.ai, lesswrong-author)
----> AGI: ~2026-32 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nMpdmt8LrzxQnkGp/ai-timelines-via-cumulative-optimization-power-less-long
- Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX)
----> AGI: <2027 https://twitter.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1730063434761318642
- Roon (OpenAI; AI researcher)
----> AGI: ~2027 https://twitter.com/tszzl/status/1626677300132708352
- Jim Keller (Tenstorrent)
----> AGI: ~2027-32? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ll5c50MrPs#t=31m25s
- Conjecture.AI
----> AGI: ~2027-35 https://www.conjecture.dev/timelines-and-pdoom/
- Andrea Miotti (Conjecture.ai ; lesswrong-author)
----> AGI: <2028 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PE22QJSww8mpwh7bt/agi-in-sight-our-look-at-the-game-board
- Gabriel Alfour (Conjecture.ai ; lesswrong-author)
----> AGI: <2028 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PE22QJSww8mpwh7bt/agi-in-sight-our-look-at-the-game-board
- Curtis Huebner (EleutherAI; Head of Alignment)
----> AGI: ~2028 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s3XctQOgew#t=29m01s
- Geordie Rose (D-Wave, Sanctuary AI)
----> AGI: ~2028 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JnTKkoPd1U#t=23m27s
- Shane Legg (DeepMind co-founder and chief scientist)
----> AGI: ~2028 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMUdrUP-QCs#t=3m45s
- Qiu Xipeng (prof. from Fudan's School of CS; MOSS-LLM)
----> AGI: ~2028-33 https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202303/02/WS640068e5a31057c47ebb1cba_1.html
- Cathie Wood (ARKInvest)
----> AGI: ~2028-34 https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1528179451070230530
- Vladimir Nesov (lesswrong-author)
----> AGI: ~2028-37 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HguqQSY8mR7NxGopc/?commentId=ceyfbskaPpahQTmfj
- Aran Komatsuzaki (EleutherAI; was research intern at Google)
----> AGI: ~2028-38? https://twitter.com/arankomatsuzaki/status/1537544920428294145
- Richard Sutton (Deepmind Alberta)
----> AGI: ~2028-43 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgHFMolXs3U#t=02m20s
- Geoffrey Hinton (Turing Award Winner; ex-Google)
----> AGI: ~2028-43 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpoRO378qRY#t=25m51s
- Yoshua Bengio (Turing Award Winner; Professor at Université de Montréal)
----> AGI: ~2028-43 https://yoshuabengio.org/2023/08/12/personal-and-psychological-dimensions-of-ai-researchers-confronting-ai-catastrophic-risks/
- Ryan Kupyn (Data Scientist & Forecasting Researcher @ Amazon AWS)
----> AGI: ~2028-65 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHnwk2sATdI#t=47m47s
- Ray Kurzweil (Google)
----> AGI: <2029 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iFSz1orGUg#t=02m47s
- Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO)
----> AGI: <2029 https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-agi-ai-five-years-2023-11?r=US&IR=T
- Mo Gawdat (former Chief Business Officer at Google [X])
----> AGI: ~2029 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H7PwTgGO5E#t=09m38s
- Brent Oster (Orbai)
----> AGI: ~2029 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP67hHT88VQ
- Hunter Jay (CEO, Ripe Robotics)
----> AGI: ~2029 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1VmlCqAziQ#t=14m05s
- Bindu Reddy (CEO of Abacus.AI)
----> AGI: ~2029-34 https://nitter.net/bindureddy/status/1737194651730522357#m
- Vernor Vinge (Mathematician, computer scientist, sci-fi-author)
----> AGI: <2030 https://historyofinformation.com/detail.php?entryid=2510
- Peter Welinder (OpenAI VP of Product & Partnerships)
----> AGI: <2030 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvxtIIqJRUQ#t=34m10s
- John Carmack (Keen Technologies)
----> AGI: ~2030 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I845O57ZSy4#t=237m50s
- Connor Leahy (EleutherAI, Conjecture)
----> AGI: ~2030 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz4G9zrlAGs#t=34m50s
- Matthew Griffin (Futurist, 311 Institute)
----> AGI: ~2030 https://www.311institute.com/codexes/future-of-exponential-technology/#page=252
- Louis Rosenberg (Unanimous AI)
----> AGI: ~2030 https://futurism.com/separating-science-fact-science-hype-how-far-off-singularity
- Ash Jafari (Ex-Nvidia-Analyst, Futurist)
----> AGI: ~2030 https://aifuture.substack.com/p/how-far-are-we-from-artificial-general
- Tony Czarnecki (Managing Partner of Sustensis)
----> AGI: ~2030 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wQ_XLwF6k4#t=22m55s
- Ross Nordby (AI researcher; Lesswrong-author)
----> AGI: ~2030 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-think-strong-general-ai-is-coming-soon
- Samuel Hammond (Senior Economist at the Foundation for American Innovation)
----> AGI: <2030? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxrWNR3sBN0#t=03m00s
- Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI)
----> AGI: ~2030-35? https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/kxgg1b/openais_chief_scientist_ilya_sutskever_comments/
- Hans Moravec (Carnegie Mellon University)
----> AGI: ~2030-40 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaOQi2P6IVk
- Jürgen Schmidhuber (NNAISENSE)
----> AGI: ~2030-47? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGftUCTqaGg#t=42m48s
- Eric Schmidt (Ex-Google Chairman)
----> AGI: ~2031-41 https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/09/eric-schmidt-artificial-intelligence-misinformation/620218/
- Sam Altman (OpenAI)
----> AGI: <2032? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJXYYnX9HqA#t=29m35s
- Charles Simon (CEO of Future AI)
----> AGI: <2032 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JpwviPYZgk#t=02m15s
- Anders Sandberg (Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford)
----> AGI: ~2032? https://twitter.com/anderssandberg/status/1512377883657973763
- Matt Welsh (Ex-google engineering director)
----> AGI: ~2032? https://levelup.gitconnected.com/the-end-of-programming-6e3f7ff0d8b4
- Yann LeCun (Meta)
----> AGI: ~2032-37 https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/06/24/1054817/yann-lecun-bold-new-vision-future-ai-deep-learning-meta/
- Chamath Palihapitiya (CEO of Social Capital)
----> AGI: ~2032-37 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFQUDCgMjRc#t=53m40s
- Demis Hassabis (DeepMind)
----> AGI: ~2032-42 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdeY-MrXD74#t=07m11s
- Robert Miles (Youtube channel about AI Safety)
----> AGI: ~2032-42 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyZye1GZtfk#t=135m10s
- Greg Brockman (OpenAI-Co-Founder)
----> AGI: <2033 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIy4MziFtcw#t=21m50s
- Masayoshi Son (SoftBank CEO)
----> AGI: <2033 https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/04/tech/japan-softbank-ai-hnk-intl/index.html
- Bill Gates (Microsoft)
----> AGI: ~2033-2123 https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun
- OpenAi
----> AGI: <2035 https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/
- Jie Tang (Prof. at Tsinghua University, Wu-Dao 2 Leader)
----> AGI: ~2035 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wQ_XLwF6k4#t=20m05s
- Eric Jang (VP of AI at 1X Technologies)
----> AGI: ~2038 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBuaYsyEu7A#t=31m37s
- Jack Kendall (CTO, Rain.AI, maker of neural net chips)
----> AGI: ~2038-43 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swknkjTulSs#t=53m55s
- Max Roser (Programme Director, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford)
----> AGI: ~2040 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swknkjTulSs#t=53m55s
- Jeff Hawkins (Numenta)
----> AGI: ~2040-50
- METACULUS:
----> weak AGI: 2026 (December 31, 2023) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/
----> AGI: 2031 (December 31, 2023) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
#ai #technologia #nauka #ciekawostki #agi #sztucznainteligencja #eacc
